Changqi Yang, Wei He, Tao Wu, Qinchun Wang

Pages: 23-28

Abstract
Aiming at the operation processes of air traffic control, which analyses unsafe segments existing in the operation of ATC (air traffic control) from more than 60 civil aviation accidents and errors related to controllers, and expresses these unsafe segments from ATC in the form of the event tree, according to the accident case library evaluates severity of various events, and sums up the ATC factors that impact the unsafe segments; then transforms these human factors into Bayesian networks and counts the probability value of human factors through the field survey and statistics, which uses probabilistic safety assessment methods to determine the likelihood of various events; finally, assessment software simple and quickly applied in ATC operation, verified by practical applications, this method improves the efficiency and accuracy of safety assessment, can reach the targeted prevention ATC error, so as to make the right decisions for the operational risk control.

Keywords: probabilistic safety assessment; air traffic control (ATC) operation; human factors; event tree; Bayesian network