J. Zhao, X. Sun

Pages: 31-40

Abstract
In order to study the change process of the highway safety status and improve the highway safety level, a research on the risk factors coupling effect on the traffic safety status in highway network was made. Firstly, the Catastrophe progression method was used to quantize the function of risk coupling factors. Secondly, based on the Cusp Catastrophe theory, the boundary condition of highway safety status was analyzed, and the statuses were divided into stable, unstable and critical stable regions. The next, the simulation model of highway traffic safety status was built, and the Chinese traffic accident statistical data from 2004 to 2012 were used to analyze the coupling effect of single factor and various factors. The results show that the human factors coupling effect are more than the material factors. Finally, based on least square method and Catastrophe Theory, the future prediction value of traffic accidents was accordance with the real situation.

Keywords: safety status; single factor; risk coupling; catastrophe theory