Z. Wu, M. Huang, T. Yang, L. Shi

Pages: 125-138

Abstract
Using historical traffic flow information to accurately and real-time predict future traffic flow information is particularly important for the management and control of traffic scenarios, and the guidance and planning of traffic travel. Short-term traffic flow prediction requires a large amount of forecast data and complex changes in traffic flow in space and time. However, the current prediction model cannot meet the requirements of real-time and accuracy of short-term traffic flow prediction. This paper proposes two traffic flow prediction models based on the changing trend and correlation of short-term traffic flow in time and space, combined with deep learning related theories. Firstly, this paper takes the traffic flow of the expressway as the research object, explores the basic parameters of traffic flow-flow, speed occupancy rate in time and space distribution law and change trend, and selects the speed as the research object, analyzes its temporal and spatial characteristics and correlation to provide data support for this study. Then, this paper introduces the related theories and frameworks of deep learning, mainly including neural network theory and hyperparameter optimization theory, as well as the deep learning model design framework. Pytorch and hyperparameter optimization framework Optuna, so as to provide theoretical foundation and technical support for this research. Finally, experiments of short-term traffic prediction based on single detection point and short-term traffic prediction based on multiple detection points are carried out on the PeMS dataset. Firstly, a multi-lane spatiotemporal convolutional network model (MSCTAN) based on traffic flow prediction at a single detection point is proposed to capture the spatiotemporal correlation of multi-lane traffic at a single detection point. Spatiotemporal Convolution and Spatiotemporal Attention Network Model (MSCSAN). For the two models proposed in this paper, comparative experiments were designed, and the mean absolute error (MAE), the root mean square error (RMSE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were used as evaluation indicators to verify their performance at a single detection point and multiple detection points. The results show that, whether it is a single detection point experiment or a multi-detection point experiment, the two models achieve the best performance compared with the comparison model.
Keywords: short-term traffic flow prediction; single detection point prediction; multiple detection point prediction; MSCTAN; MSCSAN